AVIC Optoelectronics (002179): Merger of stocks, binding shareholders, and companies will pay more attention to profit quality in the future

AVIC Optoelectronics (002179): Merger of stocks, binding shareholders, and companies will pay more attention to profit quality in the future

AVIC will have a total of 3206 exclusive to 1215 honorary participants.

50,000 income shares, accounting for about 2 of the issued share capital of AVIC.

9963%, the budget stock grant price is 23.

43 yuan / share.

  [Investment Points]1.

Compared with the two budget stock incentive plans, the number of participants this time was larger and the scale was larger.

The incentives for the IPO stock 北京夜网 incentive plan (second phase) are part of the company’s directors, senior management, middle management, core technical (business) personnel, and senior management and core backbones of subsidiaries. A total of 1,215 people were awarded 3,206.

50,000 shares, accounting for about 10 of the company’s total share capital at the time the signing of this incentive plan.

7 billion shares of 2.

9963%, the grant price is 23.

43 yuan / share.

  Senior Stock Incentive Plan (Phase 1) (granted in January 2017) Incentives are senior management personnel, middle management personnel, core technical (business) personnel, as well as senior management personnel and core backbones of subsidiaries, with a total of 266 employees and 600

100,000 shares, about the size of the company’s equity at the time the incentive plan was signed 6.
.

0.3 billion shares of 0.

9960%, the grant price is 28.

19 yuan / share.

  Large-scale participation of middle-level and above managers, core technical staff and senior management staff and core backbones of subsidiaries is conducive to binding stakeholders.

  2.

The upcoming stock unlocking conditions are more conducive to the assessment of profit quality, and the company is expected to complete the unlocking conditions in excess.

According to the announcement, the forthcoming stock incentive plan (second phase) omits the assessment indicators for operating income growth and operating profit margin, and instead increases the assessment indicators for the deduction of non-attributed net profit growth. We believe thisThe company will pay more attention to the evaluation of profit quality and efficiency in the future.

  At the same time, the evaluation conditions for the first period of income stocks are ROE, and the revenue and operating profit margin are not lower than the average level of the same industry, while the evaluation conditions for the second period of income stocks are not lower than the 75th place of the benchmark companies.Including Tyco, Amphenol, Aerospace and other leading Chinese and foreign connector companies, we calculated that the 75th percentile growth rate of net profit growth of these 21 companies in 2018 after deduction is about 17.

75% growth, the setting of the 75th place for benchmark companies also shows the company’s confidence in future high-speed growth.

  The first unlocking date of the company’s first-period income stock is January 19, 2019. The company’s net asset income conversion after the revocation of non-recurring gains and losses in 2017.

24%, the company’s 2015-2017 operating income compound advantage is 15.

99%, the company’s 2017 operating profit subsidy of 15.

22%, the three index companies have exceeded the completion, we believe that the second phase of the acquisition of stock companies is still expected to exceed the unlock conditions.

  3.

According to the announcement, the share capital of the incentive plan includes but does not comply with the company’s repurchase from the secondary market in compliance with relevant laws and regulations or the company’s targeted issue of A-share ordinary shares of the company to the incentive object.

Assume that the company plans to issue stocks of the company’s incentive objects, and does not consider the situation where the company buys back and expands its shares.

  The gradual stock grant price is 23.

Calculated at 43 yuan / share, the company will receive 7 after all the grantees purchase more shares.

$ 5.1 billion in cash, and shareholder equity increased by 7.

5.1 billion, of which equity increased by 306.

50,000 yuan, capital reserve increased by 7.

1.9 billion.

  Assume the fair value of the stock grant date of this incentive plan budget. The average transaction price on the day before the announcement of this incentive plan is 38.

78 yuan / share, the management cost to be recognized by the company implementing this incentive plan is estimated to be 3206.

5 × (38.78-23.

43) = 4.

9.2 billion yuan.

This management fee shall be included in profit or loss within the period from the grant date to the completion of unlocking all shares, that is, the above 4.

9.2 billion will be amortized within 48 months, which will affect the company’s net profit.

The amortization amount for 2019 is 340.

870,000 yuan, accounting for 0% of our predicted net profit attributable to mothers in 2019.

30%.

From the announcement, it can be seen that the company’s management cost stalls were sold in 2020. Under the background of such a large management cost, the company still set a growth rate of deducting non-attributed net profit of more than 10% and not lower than the benchmark 75th digit, indicating that the company’s future operating netProfit growth may be significantly faster than expected.

4. The short-term suppression of investment recommendations has been released.

  We believe that the launch of a feasible stock incentive plan will gradually reduce the short-term uncertainties of the company, which will effectively release the current point in time, transform the military industry and improve the prosperity of the 5G business, and maintain the company’s high value-added certainty in the next few years.Indicators, and as one of the few core assets in the military industry, the company will still surpass the excellent track and industry division by a certain estimated premium.

Regardless of the first budget stock incentive plan, do we predict the company in 2019?
The EPS in 2021 will be 1.

13 yuan, 1.

48 yuan, 1.

80 yuan, corresponding to the 杭州夜生活网 closing price of PE on November 18 respectively 34X, 26X, 21X, maintaining the “strongly recommended” level.

  5. Risk warning: Weapons and equipment delivery progress exceeded expectations, exceeded impact exceeded expectations, and military pricing reform impacted expectations.