Hengli Petrochemical (600346): Another history: Hengli Q3 profit surpasses Wanhua 22%

Hengli Petrochemical (600346): Another history: Hengli Q3 profit surpasses Wanhua 22%

Operational analysis Hengli Petrochemical’s Q3 results basically met expectations.

Hengli Petrochemical achieved operating income of 339 in the third quarter.

96 ‰, single quarter operating income increased by 95 per year.

61%.

Hengli Petrochemical’s net profit attributable to its mother reached 27 in the third quarter.

9.6 billion, an increase of 53 in ten years.

28%, the best performance in the same period, basically in line with our expectations.

We have split the profit of Hengli Petrochemical, and we expect the refinery to achieve a profit of 17 in the third quarter.

98 ppm, PTA realized profit 8.

140,000 yuan, polyester realized profit of about 1.

4.5 billion.

Refinery profits hit a new high, and PTA polyester dragged down third-quarter results.

The difference between the company’s actual profit and our forecast for the third quarter of Hengli Petrochemical’s 3.1 billion profit 深圳桑拿网 lies in: (1) Hengli Petrochemical Refinery in the third quarter achieved 2.

With 75 months of full production output, the unit load exceeded 90%, further exceeding our expectations for the third quarter load of the refinery unit.

And because its actual purchase price of crude oil is about 120 yuan / ton higher than the average price of Brent, which makes our single ton profit estimate slightly overestimated.

(2) Consumption tax affected profits in the third quarter to reach 5.

4 trillion, a significant increase from the second quarter, sales of refined oil products have increased significantly.

Hengli Petrochemical’s fourth-quarter profit may suffer from freight disruption. We believe that this kind of disturbance is an incidental disturbance and will return to normal next year with great probability: affected by 南京桑拿论坛 events such as US sanctions against COSCO, crude oil freight rates have risen rapidly, causing the company’s refining spread in the fourth quarterThe improvement narrowed, and the fourth quarter results constituted a certain impact.

The depth of the moat of Hengli Refining is that the advanced process and scale advantages of the refining and chemical equipment are late-developing advantages. The super advantages brought by the integrated operation of integrated industrial chain projects in a single park are extremely high in terms of global barriers and large-scale consumption.The coal index is a first-mover advantage in a policy environment where environmental protection is becoming stricter.

The depth of the moat of Hengli Refining is that Hengli has both of them, so its excess profits will continue to exist.

Profit adjustment and investment recommendations Taking into account the US sanctions against COSCO, the rapid and pulsating rise in crude oil freight rates has a non-recurring impact on the company’s single quarter, and the net profit will be downgraded from 102% in 20196.

6% to 95 ‰, and fine-tuned Hengli Petrochemical’s 2020-2021 net profit forecast of 140 ‰ / 166 ‰.

Maintain “Buy” rating and target price of 20.

49 yuan, target price corresponding to 2019-2021 price-earnings ratio of 15 respectively.

2, 10.

3, 8.

7 times.

Risk Warning 1.

Risk of declining one-way scale of crude oil 2.

Severe demand for textiles and clothing has deteriorated3.

Risks of refined oil sales caused by policies and restrictions on export restrictions.

Geopolitical risks 5.

Project schedule / contract is worse than expected 6.

Risk of large-scale lifting of company stocks 7.

Risk of sharp fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate8.

Severe competition in the industry9.

Downside risks to the global economic cycle10.

Other force majeure effects.